A Multi-Index Sentinel-2A and Machine-Learning Approach for High-Resolution Flood Mapping: Insights from Kerr County’s 2025 Floods
Mohammad Sohail1,2 and Tianxing Chu1,2
1Department of Computer Science, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi; 2Conrad Blucher Institute for Surveying and Science, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi
Abstract: Flood events continue to pose an escalating risk to communities, infrastructure, and agricultural systems worldwide. On July 4, 2025, severe flash floods struck Central Texas—particularly Kerr County—after rapid rises in the Guadalupe River, where water levels increased by nearly 6 m within three hours, reaching major flood stage. The disaster resulted in more than 130 fatalities, underscoring the urgent need for rapid and reliable flood detection systems.
In response to this event, this study presents an automated flood-mapping framework that integrates Sentinel-2A satellite imagery with multiple spectral water indices—Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI), Enhanced Water Index (EWI), Modified Bare-Soil Water Index (MBWI), Automated Normalized Difference Water Index (ANDWI), and Normalized Channel Index for Water Identification (NCIWI) alongside machine learning classifiers such as Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN). Implemented by Google Earth Engine (GEE), the workflow enables rapid delineation of inundated areas, with particular focus on identifying impacts within residential and urban zones. Feature-importance analysis indicates that MBWI and AWEI contribute most significantly to accurate flood classification.
Model evaluation indicates that RF and GBM outperform the other classifiers. RF achieved an F1-score of 0.9828 with an overall accuracy of 98.6%, while GBM achieved an F1-score of 0.9779 with an overall accuracy of 97.0%. Estimated flood extents from RF and GBM were approximately 5.31 km² and 4.88 km², respectively. Overall, the results demonstrate that combining multispectral Sentinel-2A data with advanced machine-learning classifiers offers an effective and timely approach for flood detection, supporting improved emergency response, recovery planning, and long-term flood-risk mitigation.